Bracing for conflict with the onset of climate change: a story from the Philippines

Marine Corps, Crow Valley, Philippines

Bracing for conflict with the onset of climate change: a story from the Philippines

Did changes in weather patterns increase conflict-related incidents in the Philippines? A recent study analyzes the relationship between climate change, seasonal rainfall patterns, agricultural production, and civil conflict in the Philippines. The findings reveal that harvest failures caused by extreme weather can exacerbate violence among rebel groups.  

Crost, Benjamin, Claire Duquennois, Joseph H. Felter, and Daniel I. Rees. “Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 88 (2018): 379-95. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2018.01.005.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069617301584

As climate change progresses, the world will have to prepare for an increased frequency of extreme weather events. Heavy downpours, extreme droughts, and storms are just a few examples of the natural occurrences that are already becoming more common. Because extreme weather can negatively affect crop growth, this poses a threat to agricultural systems. Agricultural production forms the economic backbone of many countries, which means that bad harvest seasons can have disastrous social and political consequences around the world.

In the past, researchers have hypothesized that climate change-induced extreme weather events might increase the risk of social unrest. However, this phenomenon remains understudied. In a recent study published in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Benjamin Crost from the University of Illinois and his fellow researchers are trying to change that. Crost’s study seeks to understand how climate change-induced extreme weather events could influence civil conflict through changes in crop growth in the Philippines. The researchers hypothesize that extreme weather, and its resulting effects on crop growth, can lead to an increase in civil conflict the following year.

The researchers use statistical models to relate changes in seasonal rainfall patterns to agricultural production and conflict-related incidents in each Philippine province between 2001 and 2009. The Philippines was involved in two ongoing civil conflicts during the examined period. First, Crost and his team analyze the effect of rainfall patterns on crop growth. Rainfall is tracked by season because the researchers expect a seasonal relationship between rainfall patterns and incidents. They then create a model to detect whether the outcome of a harvest season causally affects conflict-related incidents. The researchers distinguish between incidents involving the government, rebel groups, or civilians, to determine if one group is impacted more than another. The study reveals important insights into the mechanisms through which the weather can influence human behavior.

Supporting their hypothesis, Crost and his team find changing rainfall patterns to have a significant effect on civil conflict. As anticipated, this effect varies per season. In the dry season, an abnormal increase in rainfall helps to boost crop growth, which decreases the number of violent events and casualties a year after date. Conversely, heavy downpours in the wet season harm crop growth and lead to an increase in violent events one year later. This violence occurs predominantly among rebel groups that take advantage of the chaos created by a bad harvest season. The more land a province devotes to agriculture, the stronger the chance that conflict will arise after abnormally heavy wet-season rainfall.

The study suggests that rainfall anomalies can exacerbate social unrest and violence by destabilizing agricultural systems. The authors point to the potential applications of these findings to other parts of the world. For example, in Syria, crop failure formed one of the triggers leading to the current civil war. To reduce the possibility of civil conflict becoming more widespread with the onset of changing weather patterns, the researchers propose the creation of policies that can increase the resilience of agricultural systems. This way, agriculturally focused countries might be able to mitigate some of the negative effects related to a changing climate.

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