Changing Waters: Significant climate change impacts to the American Great Lakes region
Changing Waters: Significant climate change impacts to the American Great Lakes region
America’s Great Lakes region is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. What can recent science tell us about the future?
Lake Superior, dubbed “Gitche Gumee” or “Great Sea” by the Indigenous Ojibwe people, extends beyond the horizon with a vastness that has fascinated me since childhood. As I grew older, I learned about the interconnectedness of Lake Superior to the other four American Great Lakes: Huron, Erie, Michigan, and Ontario. These Great Lakes form the most extensive freshwater system in the world. Eight states and two Canadian provinces border them and are home to 23 million people. The region remains vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, from rising water levels and changes in ice formation patterns to increased occurrences of algae blooms – all consequences of society’s continued use of fossil fuels.
In a recent article published in the Journal of Hydrology, a group of researchers from Michigan Technological University determined that water levels of the Great Lakes are projected to rise under future climate conditions. The study reports that the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase +0.19, +0.44, and +0.28 meters, respectively, by 2040-2049, relative to 2010–2019 levels. The MTU researchers concluded by running a climate model that combines relevant variables to predict future climate conditions.
The rising water levels will escalate the risk of flooding and alter shorelines for surrounding communities. Consider Sugarloaf Cove, situated on Lake Superior’s North Shore near Schroeder. Sugarloaf Cove is home to a nature center, hiking opportunities, and an iconic cobblestone beach, offering visitors a place to learn about the cultural and geological history of the area. With an added .19 meters (over half a foot) of water, the beach stands to shrink in size, potentially altering recreational opportunities for visitors and affecting the local ecosystem.
Shoreline changes are not the only way climate change is predicted to impact the Great Lakes region. Increased temperatures are also expected to make conditions more suitable for algal blooms in the Great Lakes.
Algal blooms are dangerous because they deplete the water’s overall oxygen content. When water quality drops to less than 2-3 milligrams of oxygen, the conditions are deemed hypoxic. Hypoxic water conditions are unsuitable for many fish species, including the beloved walleye, a favorite among anglers in Minnesota. In another scientific journal, Purdue University scientists found that future climate conditions are expected to exacerbate three out of four hypoxia scenarios in the Great Lakes. Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus levels are two main drivers of hypoxic conditions because they promote algal growth. Since many people depend on the stability of Great Lakes ecosystems for their livelihoods and recreation, climate resilience planning must include nutrient input monitoring as a preventative measure to counteract rising hypoxic conditions.
Another impact of climate change on the Great Lakes’ livelihoods and recreation involves shifting dynamics in lake ice formation. York University researchers published an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, which found that climate change is attributable to an increasing rate of lake ice loss in Northern Hemisphere lakes, including Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. The researchers reached this conclusion by statistically analyzing historical ice data and climate variables. Declining lake ice cover causes a positive feedback loop: lower amounts of lake ice mean lower amounts of reflected sunlight into space. Thus, The Earth absorbs more energy from the sun, causing warmer overall temperatures and further lake ice losses. This feedback loop threatens activities such as ice fishing, as years when Lake Superior freezes over are famous for catching lake trout.
However, not all effects of reduced ice coverage are adverse: shipping routes on the Great Lakes may become more efficient because of more open space on the water. Shipping season has the potential to grow in length due to the same reason. Researchers have yet to determine the full extent of how much ice cover will decrease as global warming continues and worldwide emissions remain staggeringly high and continue to rise.
As a resident of the region, I worry about how effective the institutional response to these impacts of climate change will be. A review of Great Lakes coastal resilience policies, as documented in Climate Policy, uncovered significant diversity in how resilience is defined and the degree of focus these plans place on justice and equity. This consistency in defining resilience can lead to adequate planning if stakeholders are unfamiliar with how climate change might affect them. This scenario underscores the need for a standard to enhance the resilience policies of communities that are currently lacking adequate measures. Public apathy towards climate change may contribute to variable definitions of resilience. According to a 2023 Yale Program on Climate Change Communication survey, the regional average for Americans who believe climate change will personally harm them is roughly 43%. This belief is backdropped with select cities in the region being attributed the name “climate havens” due to the more minor impacts that climate change is projected to cause them relative to other parts of the world. I believe that this rhetoric can cause the public to develop a sense of false confidence and misjudge their communities’ risk from the impacts of climate change.
Despite these concerns, I’m confident the region will rise to the challenge and grow to address these issues adequately. The recent establishment of the Climate Governance Variability in the Great Lakes Research Coordination Network (CGVG-RCN) to help solve questions related to the community response to climate change-related issues and provide tangible insights for communities gives me hope for the future. Further scientific endeavors, such as the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership (MCAP), are doing valuable work to address these challenges. MCAP contributed to Minnesota’s Climate Action Framework, which outlines the state’s strategy for addressing various climate change impacts. The insights produced by this effort continue to be useful for communities bordering Lake Superior, helping to preserve their culture and livelihoods.
My experience growing up in Minnesota is a testament to the significance of Lake Superior to the state’s identity. Exploring Duluth’s Canal Park, driving up the North Shore alongside fall foliage, and watching “tall ships” crawl into Duluth harbor have long held cultural significance to generations of Minnesotans. All other communities around the Great Lakes have similar traditions and cultural connections. I worry about the potential impact of climate change on these traditions. I contemplate whether, in sixty years, I’ll find myself on the rocky shores of Lake Superior near my grandparents’ cabin, either regretting our failure to preserve these activities for future generations or drawing pride in the work done to protect our collective future. I remain hopeful that emerging scientific networks will help the Great Lakes region avoid the worst impacts of rising water, algae blooms, and changing ice formation patterns for a better future.
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